Unraveling the Myth of Cyberwar - Five Hypotheses on Cyberwarfare in the Russo-Ukrainian War (2014-2023)
Publish date: 2023-12-18
Report number: FOI-R--5513--SE
Pages: 86
Written in: English
Keywords:
- Cyber
- War
- Warfare
- Strategy
- Defence
- Russia
- Ukraine
Abstract
This report delves into the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war to discern whether it serves as a proof of concept for a large-scale cyberwar. Five prevailing hypotheses are examined to address this pivotal question. The first hypothesis posits that initial expectations of Russian offensive cyber capabilities may have been exaggerated, potentially leading to misguided assessments. The second hypothesis contends that Russia might not have fully harnessed its potential for offensive cyber capabilities. The third hypothesis challenges the notion that Russian cyberwarfare is ineffectual, emphasising the considerable damage it has inflicted, even if not indicative of a full-scale cyberwar. The fourth hypothesis suggests that Ukraine's robust cyber-defence capabilities may have deterred a comprehensive cyberwar. Lastly, the fifth hypothesis posits that the very framing of the question of a cyberwar may be misleading, aligning with earlier research findings. This report underscores the premature dismissal of any single hypothesis, primarily due to the incomplete nature of publicly available data. Additionally, it emphasises the critical need to differentiate between hostile cyber operations within the context of war and those within hostile intrastate competition or "unpeace." The report highlights the significance of establishing an analytical baseline rooted in empirically founded theory rather than speculative notions of an impending cyber apocalypse. While speculative thought is crucial for envisioning potential futures, it cannot serve as the bedrock of cyber theory. Ultimately, this report concludes that although available evidence suggests the absence of a full-scale cyberwar, Russian cyberwarfare remains formidable and demands serious consideration. The lessons derived from this conflict should be grounded in solid empirical evidence, allowing for the development of effective countermeasures encompassing technical, organisational, societal, and political dimensions based on empirical realities rather than unrealistic futuristic scenarios. This approach ensures a pragmatic and robust response to the evolving landscape of cyber threats.