Manufacturing vulnerabilities: Chinese minerals, Semiconductors and Green Technologies in the EU

Authors:

  • Tobias Junerfält
  • Emil Wannheden

Publish date: 2024-01-29

Report number: FOI-R--5524--SE

Pages: 74

Written in: English

Keywords:

  • EU
  • China
  • industrial policy
  • Made in China 2025
  • semiconductor industry
  • electric-vehicle industry
  • EV
  • energy sector
  • the green transition
  • critical raw materials
  • geoeconomic risks

Abstract

Industrial policy is an important part of China's economic statecraft in the 21st century. Strategies such as Made in China 2025 are supported by outbound investments and trade and therefore have geoeconomic implications for the EU. This report studies the EU's economic dependencies and vulnerabilities vis-à-vis China in certain strategic sectors, namely critical raw materials, the semiconductor industry, the electric-vehicle industry, and the energy sector. The report shows that the EU has considerable import dependency on China for certain critical raw materials and inputs used for the production of semiconductors and green technology. The report also lists a number of Chinese investments, including acquisitions in the semiconductor industry and energy sector, as well as new battery plant investments. Chinese state involvement in the studied investments is prevalent but varies depending on the sector. The pattern of investments is largely in line with China's industrial policy goals. There are various vulnerabilities and geoeconomic risks associated with Chinese investments and trade in the studied sectors: technology transfer (including dual-use technologies), Chinese market dominance, the establishment of economic chokepoints, security concerns related to Chinese ownership of critical infrastructure, and Chinese influence over decision-making processes within the EU.