This report examines NATO's evolving strategy for deterrence and defence in Northern Europe, covering the current situation and looking ahead to 2030. It focuses on how well NATO's adaptation efforts, strategic ends, operations plans, and force development align to achieve the core task of deterrence and defence. The report finds that the ends and ways of NATO's strategy have become more aligned since 2014 and that the Alliance now has a more coherent politico-military approach to its core task of deterrence and defence. However, there are several gaps between NATO's political ambitions and the available means. Towards 2030, differing threat perceptions among allies, changes in the transatlantic relationship, and debates about the appropriate levels of forward defence are likely to challenge the implementation of NATO's strategy. Furthermore, allies must demonstrate the political will and financial backing to build the necessary capabilities for successful implementation. Given these challenges, NATO may, as several times before in its history, pursue alternate ways to achieve deterrence and defence towards Russia nonetheless. This report is part of the broader study, Western Military Capability in Northern Europe 2023-2024, and contributes to a comprehensive analysis of the military strategic situation in Northern Europe.