Compilation of previous work regarding risk assessment from UXO remaining on on military firing ranges and practice fields after implemented risk reducing measures

Authors:

  • Joakim Ericson
  • Anders Lundkvist
  • Matilda Ågren

Publish date: 2024-08-12

Report number: FOI-R--5637--SE

Pages: 40

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • UXO
  • risk

Abstract

This report is a compilation of previous work supporting the Swedish Fortifications Agency with risk assessments concerning unexploded ordnances (UXO) remaining on military firing ranges and practice fields after risk reducing measures has been implemented. The previous work has resulted in a draft for a methodology along with multiple investigative reports that deal with important aspects for the risk assessment. This report categorizes the previous work in five different categories: presence and distribution, impact, initiation, effect and risk assessment. A selection of the work is summarized below. The previous work has resulted in a method for estimating the number of remaining UXO, which was requested in the draft for a methodology for risk assessment. A challenge in the assessment is to estimate what different activities mean for the probability that people interact with UXO. This is assumed to be due to a number of factors that are difficult to assess and it may be necessary to make assumptions and site-specific assessments. It is difficult to make a quantitative assessment of the probability of initiation for many types of impacts on the UXO. However, based on the studies carried out, it can be concluded that for thermal impact it cannot be ruled out that UXO is initiated as a result of a forest fire and that prolonged burning may pose a risk. For mechanical impact, there is exists some indications of the sensitivity to initiation for OXA given different impacts. The effects of an initiation are generally attenuated if the UXO is located at a depth in the ground. There may be a need to study identified models further. There exists a draft for a methodology for assessing the risk of remaining UXO. It is important to take into account uncertainties in assumptions and input values. Furthermore, it is recommended that the methodology be tried before it is considered complete. There also exists some work that can form a basis for how the risk should be evaluated.