Emergent and Disruptive Technologies in Global Trade - A Studie From an Export Control Perspective

Authors:

  • Per Andersson
  • Kristina Melin
  • Maria Engqvist
  • Ronnie Johansson
  • Per Jonsson
  • Linda H Karlsson
  • Elias Lallo
  • Frida Lampinen
  • Anders Lindblad
  • Staffan Lundin
  • Per Stenberg

Publish date: 2024-10-30

Report number: FOI-R--5665--SE

Pages: 41

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • export control
  • dual-use products
  • emerging and disruptive technologies

Abstract

On behalf of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a number of emerging and disruptive technologies have been studied from an export control perspective. The views of various superpowers on this subject have also been studied. The analysis has been based on the questions whether the new technologies can be effectively export controlled and, if so, how. The following conclusions could be drawn: · With few exceptions, the various technologies are too broad and general to be export controlled as a whole, without whole markets and research areas being strongly affected. · Certain sensors, materials and manufacturing equipment should be controllable based on parameters and descriptions. · Other, in some cases marginally, controllable subsystems and knowledge can be controlled based on use. · Control by use reinforces the trend of "soft" legislation that is becoming stronger in export control. · In some cases, the dividing line between "desired" and "undesired" use is blurred by the general nature of the technologies. · Due to the technologies' predicted transformative impact on society, a longer-term analysis becomes difficult and developments must be followed over time. · For the major powers studied, these disruptive technologies are a central part of their strategic security work and much is being done to deny each other access to these in various ways, without slowing down technological development.