Germany at crossroads: Cornerstone of European security or role model of fiscal discipline in an era of rearmament
Publish date: 2025-11-25
Report number: FOI-R--5816--SE
Pages: 24
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Defense spendings
- Germany
- Fiscal policy
Abstract
Germany's defense spendings has increased significantly since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As of 2025, their investments in both their own and Europe's collective security continue. In accordance with Natos new defense spending targets, Germany is planning to increase their defense spendings drastically to reach 3,5 percent of GDP as early as 2029. These massive increases in defense spendings have been made possible by circumventing Germany's debt brake with a loan-financed special fund, as well as a constitutional reform of the debt brake in 2025. Thus, the ongoing rearmament of Germany is mainly financed through loans rather than shifting priorities in the federal budget. Even though Germany has made these investments possible through reforming national fiscal rules, Germany still has to comply with EU:s fiscal rules. Since the Euro crisis in the early 2010's, Germany has reintroduced respect for EU:s fiscal rule by maintaining strict fiscal discipline. Breaching the EU's fiscal rules may undermine respect for these rules, which in turn can lead to economic instability within the Union and hinder NATO and EU members from maintaining high defense expenditures.