Strategic foresight in the defence sector: Potential developments for the Defence Outlook of the Swedish Armed Forces

Authors:

  • Lisa Bergsten
  • Malin Karlsson
  • Henrik Persson

Publish date: 2026-02-20

Report number: FOI-R--5821--SE

Pages: 69

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • strategic foresight
  • foresight
  • futures studies
  • defence outlook
  • future strategic environment assessment

Abstract

As the first stage of the Swedish Armed Forces' long term defence outlook, a future environment assessment is conducted that looks 20 years or more into the future. The current uncertain security environment, Sweden's membership in NATO and the ongoing substantial build-up of the Swedish military and societal security has resulted in an increased need for future strategic environment assessment and planning. Simultaneously, these factors have also contributed to significant strain on Swedish Armed Forces personnel. This challenge provides the foundation for this study and the presented developmental paths as a basis for continued work with development of the future strategic environment assessment of the defence outlook. The following report presents options for further development of the future strategic environment assessment work and FOI's support to it. The analysis is based on a literature review, evaluations of previous future environment assessments, a FOI-workshop and interviews with both people who have worked with the future environment assessment in the Strategy and Analysis section (StraAna) at the Defence staff as well as interviews with organisations that carry out similar future environment assessment work within the defence sector internationally. A key challenge for the future strategic environment assessment of the defence outlook concerns the high rate of turnover for the staff tasked with its execution. An important dilemma for the suggestions presented here concerns the need to balance between giving FOI a larger role in the work and ensuring sufficient involvement of StraAna in the process so that the results can be well utilized in the later stages of the defence outlook. FOI has good conditions to support the future strategic environment assessment process further, but the inclusion and ownership of the Swedish Armed Forces in the future strategic environment assessment needs to be maintained and developed.