The Philippines' strategic outlook: Pendulum swings, maritime tensions and military modernisation efforts

Authors:

  • Olivier Milland

Publish date: 2025-12-15

Report number: FOI-R--5826--SE

Pages: 76

Written in: English

Keywords:

  • Philippines
  • security policy
  • defence modernisation
  • foreign policy
  • the Pacific
  • Indo-Pacific region
  • political dynasties
  • oligarchy
  • terrorism
  • Islamism
  • greatpower rivalry.

Abstract

This report is a translated version of FOI's report in Swedish from September 2025: Filippinernas säkerhetspolitiska färdriktning: Pendelsvängningar, maritima spänningar och moderniseringsambitioner (FOI-R--5789--SE). The report analyses the Philippines' security policy and strategic outlook by examining the country's political history, domestic political actors and challenges, national self-image and threat perception, relations with the great powers China and the US, and its security priorities. The Philippines' geographic location in a region of growing great-power rivalry and geopolitical tensions makes the country a pivotal state. Longstanding shifts in Philippine foreign policy can therefore have significant consequences for the West's collective interests in the region. The perception of the Philippines as the weakest link in the US alliance system in the Indo-Pacific region, together with the country's substantial domestic political challenges, also makes it an attractive target for external influence operations intended to undermine Western influence. Sweden has stated an ambition to strengthen defence cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including the Philippines. The report therefore emphasises the importance of continuing to deepen knowledge of the Philippines as a strategic actor and its geopolitical context, in order to better understand how developments in the Pacific region may affect Sweden's interests.