Injury Panoramas and Dimensioning Conceptualizations for the Swedish Healthcare System in the event of an Attack with a Weapon of Mass Destruction
Publish date: 2026-04-22
Report number: FOI-R--5936--SE
Pages: 42
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Swedish healthcare system
- CBRN
- scenarios
- simulations
- injury panoramas
- injury outcomes
Abstract
As the threat landscape facing Swedish civil society continues to deteriorate, there is an increasing need to understand the relevant health risks associated with different types of attacks. This report presents dimensioning conceptualizations and representative scenarios for antagonistic CBRN events. The conceptual scenarios across the four domains include: artillery shells containing sarin, catastrophic release of liquefied sulfur dioxide from a tanker truck, airborne release of Bacillus anthracis, Coxiella burnetii, and Yersinia pestis, a nuclear reactor breakdown and finally a nuclear explosion targeting either a major city or a military installation and the associated effects of residual radiation. For each scenario, an injury panorama is identified, describing the typical symptoms and types of injuries. The scenarios are also used to estimate injury outcomes, that is, the number of individuals affected by the types of injuries that are specified in the injury panoramas. This is achieved through analyses of similar historical events, the use of previous reports, and new quantitative simulations. The objective is that this analysis will serve as a basis for the planning and capacity design of the Swedish healthcare system, enabling effective management of CBRN incidents and thereby minimizing overall harm.