Methods of Vulnerability and Lethality assessments - Project summary report 2017-2019


  • Sofia Hedenstierna
  • Bo Johansson Gilljam
  • Mats Hartmann
  • Camilla Andersson
  • Joakim Storck
  • Matilda Ågren
  • Charlie Hagerman
  • Rolf Jarlås
  • Niklas Johansson
  • Peter Alvå
  • Johan Pelo

Publish date: 2020-02-14

Report number: FOI-R--4891--SE

Pages: 32

Written in: Swedish


  • Lethality assessment
  • vulnerability assessment
  • risk assessment
  • AVAL
  • human vulnerability
  • large facilities
  • future fighting vehicles


The project Methods of vulnerability and lethality assessments is a research and development project with the purpose to maintain and develop the ability to perform vulnerability, lethality, and risk analysis of conventional weapons effects in targets mainly on platform level but also in large complex targets. The year 2019 was the third and last year of a three-year cycle and this report briefly describes the majority of the work done during this period. The report also presents other activities where the competence gained within this project have been applied. The project has looked at platforms in all three domains - sea, land and air and included both lethality and vulnerability assessments as well as risk analyses. However, the majority of work has been focused on three main topics: - Large facilities, e.g, an air base, - Human vulnerability, - Future combat vehicles. During 2019, nine written reports were produced of which four constituted the main deliverables. Besides the work performed within the project itself, the knowledge produced by the project has been valuable to other projects and efforts such as supporting the Swedish Armed Forces study activities with lethality and vulnerability assessments, e.g. regarding small arms lethality and vulnerability of fighting vehicles. In the next three-year period of 2020-2022, a new project will contain partly new research topics and partly continuation of the topics studied during the last period.