Testing a horizon scanning process - using the example of black phosphorus


  • Eva Dalberg
  • Christina Grönwall
  • Göran Kindvall
  • Anna Lindberg
  • Johan Schubert

Publish date: 2020-12-22

Report number: FOI-R--5056--SE

Pages: 18

Written in: Swedish


  • Horizon scanning
  • methodology test


This report describes horizon scanning of the two-dimensional material black phosphorus. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) performed the study during the autumn of 2020 as part of a larger project on horizon scanning (the Horizon scanning project) performed for the Swedish Armed Forces. The study also included participation of technical experts from a project on future defence materials (Materials technology 2050) which is part of FOI's strategic research programme. The choice of topic for the horizon scan, black phosphorus, was made due to interests and needs in the Materials technology 2050 project, but it was also considered to be a technology area that was of the right size and technology readiness level to be a first test of the horizon scanning methodology under development in the Horizon scanning project. The horizon scanning identified some, from a defence perspective, potentially interesting applications of black phosphorus; sensors, batteries, high-effect lasers and lubricants. However, the main conclusions of the report concern developments of the methodology and tools. The focus of the report is a description on the application of selected parts of the horizon scanning process developed by FOI on the topic of black phosphorus. It was a challenge for the practical application of the process that the manual of how to apply the process does not yet exist, it will be produced next year. In addition, the process was only partially applied. The work performed nevertheless gave useful experience and insight for further development. The single most important recommendation for future horizon scanning activities is to use the developed process in full.