Central Asia advances its regional agenda Central Asia’s position is growing in importance as the world becomes increasingly multipolar. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan rely on pragmatic cooperation and diplomacy to navigate the differing agendas of the great powers. An FOI report examines how the two countries are increasingly taking their future into their own hands.
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Rare earth dependencies and strategic leverage in Europe’s security order Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s security order has entered a new phase defined by rearmament, sanctions, and the weaponisation of supply chains. This shift has pushed critical raw materials to the centre of economic statecraft. Rare-earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium are indispensable to the magnets, sensors, and guidance systems that underpin precision weapons, advanced radar, and electric propulsion. Mineral access has shifted from economic concern to strategic imperative.
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From platforms to code: The future defence industry The military–industrial complex of the future might look different from that of the past. Technological developments, from information technology in general to recent achievements in AI, are bringing new expectations and new players into the military-industrial field. The traditional defence industry has long integrated software into military systems; now there are software companies integrating military components into software-based products. However, the requirements for defence equipment are different from those for software products. Will the promises of the new actors hold, and will the old actors stand aside? How will states, which constitute the market and maintain strong ties to the traditional industry, act? The shaping of the future defence industry will affect many, not only companies, but also nations and future defence capabilities.
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Shifting Powers: The Global South in a Changing World Order It long seemed that economic liberalisation, globalisation, and democratisation were making the distinction between the North and the South increasingly irrelevant. However, recent years have witnessed the return of this dichotomy as the Global South has emerged as a geopolitical factor in world politics due to a combination of political, economic, ideological, and institutional factors. While there is a tendency to focus on great power rivalry as a driving force in world politics, dynamics within the Global South are just as likely to shape the future of the world order, calling for a more finegrained understanding of its political and economic dynamics. The challenge for the Global South is whether growing economic weight and diplomatic coordination will translate into durable rule-shaping power under conditions of geopolitical rivalry, financial volatility, and persistent structural asymmetries.
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Russian Electronic Warfare in Ukraine – A Key Area in Preparedness for Future Conflicts The war in Ukraine has had a huge impact on modern electronic warfare (EW) in ways few nations were prepared for or could foresee. The rapid development of technology related to electronic warfare and the use of drones is now redefining many defence forces around the world. The aggressor, Russia, has for the last 20 years focused on developing and integrating electronic warfare as a key component of its armed forces. From day one of the full-scale invasion, EW has been extensively used in the war in Ukraine.
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A new nuclear order The world is stepping into a new nuclear era. What will replace the old order is highly uncertain. Current arms control agreements and nuclear norms are eroding while great power rivalry is overtaking the global agenda. Understanding the developments and dynamics of this change will be pivotal not only to navigate it but also to make strategic decisions in a more hostile and dangerous world.
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Open data—opportunity or risk? The functionality of today’s society is dependent on large amounts of digital data. The prevailing view in the West has therefore been that public data should be open and freely available to promote transparency, innovation, and scientific progress. However, recent geopolitical developments have shifted political priorities, raising concerns about national security and civil preparedness. Particularly in the EU, decision-makers are increasingly determined to augment strategic autonomy and digital governance as a way of achieving digital sovereignty.
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Preparedness by Europeans − Taking action in a new reality Europe faces a new reality. This message, whether it is coming from Helsinki, Stockholm, Brussels, Paris, or Madrid, raises the question of how this reality should best be met. Looking at new European Union strategies and public support for a common defence and security policy, this chapter explores the future of European preparedness. By considering several perspectives, namely what the EU envisions, what Europeans want according to surveys, and what member states are hesitant about, we outline some of the major challenges and visions for a better prepared Europe.
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Russia: Striving towards agency in a multipolar world order Russia’s security policy since the late 1990s reflects a striving for agency in an international system perceived as Western-dominated. However, the “end of history,” as proclaimed by political scientist Francis Fukuyama in 1989, meant very different things for the West and for Russia. Since 2014, official discourse increasingly frames the confrontation with the West as a struggle in civilisational and existential terms. Yet Russia’s capacity to exercise agency in a genuinely multipolar order will be constrained by economic and geopolitical limitations.
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A new anthology offers a guide to an unsettled world Geopolitical turbulence, tensions, and economic uncertainty, alongside rapid technological transformation, are now part of everyday reality. FOI’s eleventh volume in the Strategic Outlook series examines this new landscape.
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