Strategy for the Unexpected. The link between changing policies and military capabilities
Publish date: 2002-01-01
Report number: FOI-R--0642--SE
Pages: 66
Written in: Swedish
Abstract
Commissioned by the Ministry of Defence, the TOFproject (Operational capability of the Swedish Total Defence) gives a second opinion on curTent and projected defénce capabilities - in a decidedly strategic perspective. The report focuses on conc;åvable military challenges affecfing Sweden or Swedish interests in northem Europe in the relative near term (10 years). Substanflated assumptions made on the dynamics of possible crises provide the basis fbr the analysis. A key assumption is that unfbreseen ruptures, which alter the internafional setting, do in fact occur. The greatest risk för strategic challenges flow from Svveden´s more active participation in international crisis management In this context, attention is called to the prospect of maelsbvm-dynamics; e.g., that Sweden and partners intervene in a successively deepening cjisis, during which the political and military ends and means of all involved actors gradually diverge from the original. Wåh the use of synthefic scenarios various examples of situation-related a~ve måtary strategigs are given. The analysis indicates that Sweden´s military, and hence strategic, freedom of action is severely circumseiibed by its current and projected military posture in many conceivable crisis situations. Finally, the report outlines possible ways to redress this predicament.