Strategi för det oväntade 3 - Den nya osäkerheten
Publish date: 2006-01-01
Report number: FOI-R--1981--SE
Written in: Swedish
This report builds on the core concepts of the TOF-study, namely ruptures and maelstrom dynamics, i.e. sudden chocks or slower chains of events that transform the perceived logic of international relations. The report outlines trends and driving forces likely to create tension, consequently setting off ruptures or maelstroms. Such aggregated tensions are characterized as latencies. Globalisation is the leitmotif of the study. Demography, energy supply, climate, environment, terrorism and state actors are discussed as well. The dynamics in all these areas are so wideranging and rapid that it is reasonable to assume that geopolitics in the classic sense will again come to the fore in international relations. How trends are driving forces might concur to create latencies is laid out in five,distinctly different "scenes" depicting the global security situation ten years from now. In addition, the chain of events that has led up to each scene is spelled out. The scenes are: On the Edge of the Abyss; A tolerable World; A World of Regions; Civil Society under Duress; and A Global Economic Collapse. The over-arching conclusion of the study is that ruptures and maelstroms are likely to happen and will transform the global security situation. Hence, that should be the proper starting point in deliberations on future threats and risks.