As warm as in Germany or Northern Africa? Climate scenarios for the research programme Climatools

Future climate change may become large or smaller depending on the development of greenhouse gas emissions. During 2007 the IPCC released its fourth assessment report on the dominant causes of climate change. At the end of the century it is expected that the global mean temperature may have risen with as much as six degrees. The heating may be even greater in Sweden, with effects on precipitation, vegetation and snow cover. The Climatools research programme aims at maintaining or increasing the capacity of sectors and regions in Sweden to deliver services to the society by providing decisionsmakers with tools for decision on issues of climate change. The tools are developed in scenariobased case studies. Common to all scenarios in Climatools are assumptions on the future climate in Sweden. Within Climatools the effects on three regions are considered: Umeå, Mälardalen and Skåne. We have chosen three climate scenarios as a basis for coming work within the programme. These three scenarios are presented in the report, together with their motivation. The effects on the three regions of interest are also described. With these scenarios we want to span a challenging space of outcomes for the future work. The three scenarios are named after what the average temperature in Umeå equals in terms of today climate. They are called Umeå like Umeå, Umeå like Germany, and Umeå like North Africa.