Security of the Baltic Countries: Freedom of Action and Defensibility

This report examines the securitý situation of the Baltic countries, their scope for action, and their defensibility. Setting out from a number of determining factors and on-going or expected changes the potential impact on that situation is analysed. The report discusses conditions for the freedom of action of the Baltic countries to be maintained, their economic sovereignty to be asserted, and their defences to be militarily secured. The report analyses changes in the security environment of Northern Europe, the security policy interests and goals of the Baltic countries as declared, conditions of military strategy that concern the Baltic countries, and the economic vulnerability of these countries vis-à-vis Russia. A final section includes a summary and a discussion about the security policy prospects of the countries and the responsibility that rests with their neighbours and the euroatlantic institutions. The report concludes that the primary risk the Baltic countries run is to have their security policy freedom of action compromised by Russian political pressure and meddling, for strategic purposes, for strategic purposes, in their economic sphere, even if no direct military threat is directed against them. But in the event of NATO prioritising security issues in the Barents Sea and Arctic areas over those of the Baltic Sea area - as well as a possible weakening of NATO or the transatlantic link - the military security in the Baltic Sea region would be impaired. NATO´s credibility presupposes that a long-term capability to interrupt an escalating crisis in this region is maintained. The position of the EU vis-à-vis Russia could be weakened due to devided opinions within the union, with repercussions on the Baltic countries. Insufficient support from NATO, USA and the EU would mean greater demands being put on Sweden and Finland for providing security in the Baltic Sea region, including the Baltic countries. To eliminate the risk that Baltic countries be exposed to pressures aiming at successively transforming them into a gray-zone under Russian influence is a vital task for the euroatlantic institutions and the countries concerned (not least the Baltic ones themselves) in co-operation. This could be done by raising the price for Russian political and military pressure and economic intrusion aimed at the Baltic countries, and simultaneously offering Russia co-operation in certain chosen areas.