Metodik för verkansvärdering - Slutrapport för åren 2008-2010

This report summarizes the acitivities of the project "Metodik för verkansvärdering" (Methodology for vulnerability and lethality assessments) for the years 2008-2010 and some of the results. The projects has been working in a broad field of tasks related to how one can and should perform assessments of different types, lethality, vulnerability and risk, and how to find and define base data and models for this. In addition to this, a lot of work has also been focused on creating base data and experimental equipment for assessments of what type of ammunition that can be considered as a threat to Swedish soldiers in international service and the technical performance of these ammunition types. Focus of the project has been on the interaction between an ammunition and the target (or part of target). Despite this it is sometimes necessary to also include related areas, e.g. hit probability which might be dependent on a sensor´s ability to detect and measure the target. A number of methodology descriptions have been presented during the three years. By defining a methodology and preform assessments in accordance it will be easier to compare results between different assessments and the people performing the assessments will build their experience of this kind of work. Within this experience it will also be possible to find areas which are difficult and thus may need further research activities. In addition to the methodology description a lot of work has been devoted to base data extraction to assessments, via literature reviews, experimental studies and model developments. Examples of activities are: initiation of stored ammunition, damage criteria for components and human vulnerability. In order to create a better base data set for technical performance of threat ammunitions an experimental facility for small arms ammunitions testing is being built. At the moment a number of test shots have been fired and the system appears to work as intended, however the facility needs to be calibrated. Within the framework of threat assessment of the project a number of education opportunities have been presented for Swedish soldiers going abroad as well as continuous knowledge transfer to the Swedish Armed Forces and the Defence Material Administration (FMV). The most evident result of this project is that FOI, based upon the competence that has been build up in the project, has been able to support both Swedish Armed Forces and FMV with actual assessments. Minor conceptual studies have been performed as part of the project, while more time consuming studies have been separate projects.