If BJP wins the election in India: strategic change or ”business as usual”?

Authors:

  • Samuel Neuman Bergenwall

Publish date: 2014-05-09

Report number: FOI-R--3878--SE

Pages: 54

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Narendra Modi
  • BJP
  • India
  • the Gujarat model
  • the Gujarat riots
  • India’s strategic culture
  • India’s grand strategy
  • security policy
  • defense policy
  • foreign policy
  • economics
  • domestic politics
  • Congress party
  • China
  • Pakistan
  • USIndia
  • relations

Abstract

This study analyses possible consequences for India's foreign, security and defense policy, internal stability and economic development if BJP comes to power in the parliamentary election of 2014. Perspectives and shifts within India's strategic culture are described. Historical and contemporary similarities and differences between BJP's respectively the Congress party's strategic orientations and proposed policies are analyzed. The study also considers whether or not India's grand strategy will change if Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister. Modi's background in the Hindu nationalist movement as well as his views on economic, foreign, security and defense policy are analyzed. The study concludes that drastic shifts in India's grand strategy are unlikely if BJP wins the election and Modi becomes Prime Minister. However, a BJP-led administration will probably focus more on generating rapid economic growth and be more assertive vis-à-vis China and Pakistan than a Congress-led administration. Moreover, a BJP-led government could possibly impose ideas and practices of the hindutva ideology that could endanger the social fabric of the Indian society.