Klimatpolitik och energisäkerhet: konflikter och synergier

Authors:

  • Bengt Johansson
  • Daniel Jonsson
  • André Månsson
  • Lars J Nilsson
  • Måns Nilsson

Publish date: 2014-09-15

Report number: FOI-R--3896--SE

Pages: 67

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Climate policy
  • energy transition
  • energy security
  • security of supply

Abstract

Emissions of greenhouse gases must be significantly reduced in order to limit the risk of severe climatic change. Such reductions will require a long-term transition of the energy system to one in which energy efficiency improvements, electrification, renewable energy, carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy can play important roles. In this report, the implications of such a transition for various aspects of energy security are studied. Such aspects include security of supply and the risk of energy shortages and price volatility; the risk of negative consequences for the economies of energy exporters; the risk that energy contributes to conflict, or is used as a tool for political pressure; as well as hazards to human health and the environment that emanate from accidents, antagonistic threats, or the normal operation of various energy technologies. According to our analyses, there is nothing that contradicts the possibility that future energy systems with low carbon emissions can be at least as secure as current systems. On the contrary, we see major advantages for several aspects of energy security. The transition period requires special attention, however, since even though economic resources and competencies need to be redirected to new, expanding, energy systems, there is a risk that contracting technologies may receive insufficient allocation of resources for maintaining a high level of energy security. Furthermore, new business models designed for new technologies have to develop and co-exist with, or replace, the old ones. Investments and new regulations will also be required to safeguard high energy security. Several more general conclusions about energy security can be summarised as follows: ? There are many ways to measure energy security - but none fully cover all aspects. ? What is included in the concept of energy security partly depends on whose security is in focus. Import dependency is an often used, albeit blunt, measure of energy security. How various aspects of energy security should be weighed against each other is mainly a political rather than a scientific question. ? Energy security is not only about oil and gas, even if they dominate both international debate and literature. Electricity and renewable energy are also important. The priority should be to secure energy services, rather than the supply of a certain amount of energy. ? It is not a straightforward task to rank the energy security of future energy systems, since that security is determined by the impact of various external factors. At the same time, changes in many of those characteristics of an energy system that are important for energy security will be occurring anyway, independent of the level of climate mitigation. ? There are shortcomings in how the EU integrates energy security with other energy policy targets. ? Swedish energy policy takes its starting point in a liberal global, market strategy, but it is important to take into account that some other countries and actors in the energy market base their actions on other perspectives, e.g., geopolitical. Against the background of future changes in energy systems, Sweden has reason to revisit how energy security issues are dealt with, in order to improve its preparedness for a changing and uncertain future, and to establish stronger coordination between ministries, agencies and other important actors.

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