Utvecklingen i EU:s östra närområde

Authors:

  • Jakob Hedenskog

Publish date: 2015-11-26

Report number: FOI-R--4132--SE

Pages: 86

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • EU
  • Eastern Partnership
  • European Neighbourhood Policy
  • ENP
  • Eurasian Economic Union
  • Belarus
  • Ukraine
  • Moldova
  • Russia
  • DCFTA
  • Euromaidan
  • Revolution of Dignity
  • Crimea
  • Donbas
  • levers

Abstract

The report describes the emergence of the EU's Eastern Partnership and the tug of war for influence in the Eastern neighborhood - Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova - that have occurred between the EU and Russia. The situation in the neighborhood is described as very unstable, particularly in Ukraine after Russia's illegal annexation of the Crimea and the war in Donbas. The report also discusses Russia's use of different levers to increase its influence in the post-Soviet area. The use of the military lever has increased significantly since the aggression against Ukraine started, but also information operations and human-based levers as the use of minorities - both Russian and others - aimed at destabilizing these countries and force them to remain in Russia's sphere of influence. The conclusions distinguishes three possible scenarios for the Eastern Partnership: One that involves the status quo, one that is based on engagement with Russia and one based on containment policy. The consequences for Sweden and the Swedish Armed Forces is that we must prepare ourselves for living with an unstable situation in our immediate surroundings and act accordingly.

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