Ground based air defense systems: Future trends

The threat landscape for air defense systems becomes more diversified and future threats range from many small devices, such as UAS and guided munition, to hypersonic cruise missiles and long range gliding ballistic missiles. Increasing globalization also means faster proliferation of both knowledge and opportunities and threat systems can be expected to greater extent based on commonly available components. Traditional complex platform-centric air defense systems may play a reduced role in the future because of high costs and long development, resulting in a small number of expensive systems. An important trend is network-based, distributed and modular integrated air defense systems that can meet different kinds of threats. It enables a more optimal utilization of the information available in the system and provides improved robustness and cost efficiency, but requires development of architectures, interfaces and methods for systems integration beyond what is available today. Increased mobility and automation to short reaction times and provide rapid fire are other expected developments. Technological developments may enable rail guns, HPM and high energy laser. Some argue that a breakthrough is near, others emphasize serious remaining technical problems. The information is partly unreliable and difficult to predict. Prospective applications have changed from "doomsday weapon" to short range complement to traditional weapons. Israel and the US reason clearly in terms of an integrated air defense system with lasers, HPM, rail guns, C-RAM, SAM and anti-ballistic missiles arranged in "layers". There is a rapid ongoing development. Not only in technology, but political and economic changes make it difficult to predict the long term future of air defense system development.