The Future of Regional Security in the Middle East – Four Scenarios

The aim of this report is to explore possible future security developments in the Middle East in the medium (10-year) term. Given the upheavals we see today, what sort of future could the region be facing? The work is built on the hypothesis that predicting future security developments in the Middle East is not possible. As a consequence, the report tries to answer the main question by using explorative scenario-building methodology. Instead of offering predictions, the report presents four possible scenarios for Middle East futures in the medium (10-year) perspective that policy makers might find helpful to contemplate, explore further and prepare for. These four alternative futures are summarized below.