Defending the Baltics

This study deals with the problem of defending the Baltic states against an armed attack, a problem which has risen to the top of the "hard" European security agenda lately. In a manner, it could be said that the challenge of defending and reinforcing the Baltics contains most of the elements facing Nato members as part of their surprised adaptation to the realities of an article 5-world. The point of departure used here is the politico-military context of the problem at hand: the lively international debate on the matter, as well as the current state of strategic instability, and the dynamics associated with Nato's transformation back to the task of collective defence. The strong Swedish national interests which would be at stake in any conflict over the Baltics are then briefly delineated, and some possible implications suggested. The main points of the core military defence problem are thereafter presented, well as a set of factors emanating from Russia's increased military capabilities, which complicates the military equation. This includes the phenomenon known as "hybrid warfare", the increased prominence of nuclear weapons, and anti-access/area-denial capabilities which might diminish the prospects for reinforcing and supporting the Baltics in a hot situation. Finally, some reflections are made on the utility of self-defence capabilities and of active resistance for small states with big and violent neighbours.