Iran after the nuclear deal - A struggle between change and status quo

With the finalization of the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 in the summer of 2015, the idea and in some parts, the hope that Iran is entering an era of moderation has emerged. Some believe that sanctions relief and the improvement of the Iranian economy that could follow the agreement, will create a more favourable political environment for improving Iran's relations with the international community. This vision might overstate the importance of the nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions. The nuclear agreement is not likely to be the deciding factor of whether Iran's political system develops in a moderate direction or not. It is also not likely to decisively change Iran's foreign policy outlook in the short term. Since the revolution in 1979 the Iranian political elite has been engaged in a tug-of-war between the hardliner and reformist camps. They have opposing views on Iran's economic model; what type of relationship Iran should have with the outside world; and ultimately on what the Islamic Republic's main source of legitimacy is, and thus where the political authority lies. Each of these factors influence Iranian policy vis-à-vis the world. Iranian moderation is ultimately a question of who is in power, and in Iran the wielding of political influence is a complex matter. This intra-elite tug-of-war and who is currently winning it determines if Iran is to move in a more moderate or conservative direction. The purpose of this report is to describe the different political factions in Iran and to analyse how the power struggle between them has affected Iranian policy since 1989.