Beredskap i framtida energisystem. En analys med utgångspunkt i Energimyndighetens ”Fyra framtider”

Authors:

  • Bengt Johansson
  • Daniel Jonsson

Publish date: 2018-05-09

Report number: FOI-R--4589--SE

Pages: 85

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • energy security
  • energy preparedness
  • scenarios
  • system changes
  • preparedness planning

Abstract

In this study, the preconditions to build energy preparedness, designed for future energy systems, are analysed. The starting point is taken in four energy scenarios developed by the Swedish Energy Agency. The aspects that are studied more thoroughly in this report are digitalisation, increased electrification of the energy system, decentralisation of electricity production, increased dependence of variable electricity production, increased integration of the Swedish electricity system in the European system, increased use of batteries and other energy storage systems, increased use of biofuels, the ownership of energy supply, energy efficiency, and new trends in lifestyle and society. The planning for preparedness in a changing energy system has to balance between a pro-active and a reactive approach, where the first imply that the systems are designed taking various future threat scenarios into consideration. The second approach instead rely mainly on the capability of the system to adapt as the threats occur. Strategies for preparedness can include robust parts in order to allow for necessary investments, but at the same time they need to avoid such lock-ins that hinders necessary adaptation to future conditions. The energy systems should, in order to handle serious disturbances, be robust but also be flexible. Flexibility can reduce the dependence of individual energy carriers, energy suppliers and supply routes. There is often a trade-off between efficiency and cost minimisation on the one side, and security of supply on the other. When planning preparedness for the energy system, both the capability of the energy system to maintain an acceptable function and the possibility for society to function under significantly disturbed energy supply should be considered. In order to evaluate the level of preparedness for a system (current and future) there is a need for detailed information that is rarely possible to extract from general energy balances. It requires for example knowledge of the level of redundancy in the system, the existence of physical protection of infrastructure, the organisation of IT-security and the acceptance in the population for energy supply disturbances. A clearer focus on energy supply for vital societal functions will also be necessary. In the study, examples of potential indicators for evaluating energy preparedness in current and future systems are provided.

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