Knowledge for contingency planning: What effects have Risk and Vulnerability Analysis generated so far and how could its usefulness increase?


  • Camilla Eriksson
  • Carl Denward
  • Vidar Hedtjärn Swaling
  • Lovisa Mickelsson

Publish date: 2020-01-29

Report number: FOI-R--4804--SE

Pages: 142

Written in: Swedish


  • Risk and Vulnerability Assessments
  • risk
  • vulnerability
  • continuity planning
  • crisis management
  • contingency system
  • safety


Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (RVA) make up a significant part of the Swedish contingency planning system. It is mandatory for all state authorities, counties, and municipalities to carry out RVA. In this report, we investigate whether the introduction of RVA has delivered its intended effects as well as if, and if so what, changes should be introduced to make the system more useful. RVA's were introduced to analyse a broad range of threat scenarios including natural catastrophes and terrorism. The work is governed through legislation and regulations and is expected to be used in operations planning as well as to inform national risk assessments. In this report, we account for a questionnaire sent to all actors who report RVA's and an interview study with experts. Our results show that the RVA is rarely used as a basis for planning and that many actors argue that the governance of RVA's should be stricter in order to ensure that the work results in capacity building measures. We propose a new division of tasks in the contingency planning system where risk analysis are carried out mainly by central authorities, to be used by counties and municipalities for continuity planning.