Western Military Exercises 2014-2019

Authors:

  • Albin Aronsson
  • Björn Ottosson

Publish date: 2020-03-20

Report number: FOI-R--4875--SE

Pages: 65

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • deterrence
  • security and defence policy
  • military forces
  • military capability
  • exercises
  • Europe
  • Northern Europe
  • NATO
  • collective defence
  • reassurance
  • command
  • logistics
  • defence planning

Abstract

This report answers the following research question: What patterns are observable in Western military exercises 2014-2019 that are relevant for the West´s combined capability to conduct high-intensity warfare against a peer competitor? Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, the report has identified several patterns. NATO's exercise schedule was affected immediately by Russia´s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and exercises were quickly used for reassurance and deterrence purposes. The number of NATO and NATO associated exercises increased dramatically post-2014, and the level has been maintained throughout the studied period. The scale of the exercises has increased, regarding the number of participants, forces trained, command and control, and geographical spread. The number of participating countries has also increased, and several of NATO`s initiatives aimed at adapting to the new security environment have been integrated into the exercises. The exercises have also become more complex. An increased number of advanced capabilities are being exercised, and the level of jointness has increased. An even more important pattern is the focus shift toward territorial defence, NATO´s eastern flank, article-5 scenarios, and warfare against a peer competitor. NATO has made great strides. However, several problems and shortcomings remain.