Four Scenarios for the Swedish Coast Guard - A Scenario Analysis of a stormy security-political sea

Authors:

  • Peter Bennesved
  • Eva Mittermaier
  • Matilda Olsson

Publish date: 2023-01-19

Report number: FOI-R--5423--SE

Pages: 49

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Scenario Analysis
  • Coast Guard
  • Rescue Services
  • Sea Surveillance
  • Crisis Management
  • Civil Defence
  • Total Defence.

Abstract

This report presents four scenarios focused on the Swedish Coast Guard's three areas of operation: Rescue services, Sea surveillance, and Crisis management and Civil Defence. The scenarios are based on two security-political variables: 1. The level of Russian foreign political aggressiveness in the Baltic Sea, and 2. The level of multilateral co-operation in the Baltic Sea. Four scenarios are analysed: "Status Quo", "Grey Zone", "Military Conflict", "Peace-time Crisis". The Scenarios provide a broad perspective on the many security-related challenges that the Swedish Coast Guard might face in the near future. The study emphasizes the need for preparedness activities and policy-work to increase the level of preparedness, but also that the Swedish Coast Guard's activities also will be shaped by long-term environmental hazards related to climate change and extreme weather. Such issues cut into all scenarios. Due to the Swedish Coast Guard's relation to the Swedish Armed Forces during crisis, preemptive crisis preparedness activities are complex and need to be considered carefully.