Defence Economic Outlook 2023

Authors:

  • Per Olsson

Publish date: 2023-06-28

Report number: FOI-R--5433--SE

Pages: 96

Written in: English

Keywords:

  • defence economics
  • great power rivalry
  • military expenditure
  • military equipment

Abstract

This study assesses and compares the military strength of major global powers, in terms of military expenditure, military equipment and economic resources. Currently, in 2022, the US has a clear military advantage over near peer rivals and invests significant resources to maintain its lead. However, during the past two decades, China has steadily narrowed the military gap. Since 2000, China's military spending has more than quadrupled, enabling a rapid and comprehensive modernisation of its armed forces. Russia also invested heavily towards military modernisation during this period, but has incurred heavy losses during its invasion of Ukraine. India has increased its military spending during the past two decades, becoming the world's fourth-largest spender. Military expenditure in Western Europe has also increased markedly in recent years. The US will continue to enjoy an overall military advantage in 2030. However, China seems to be on track to become the world's largest economy around the same time, which will likely further decrease the US-China gap in military strength. European countries plan to strengthen their militaries, but it remains to be seen whether the ambitious goals can be realised. Meanwhile, Russia will likely need to replace much of its lost equipment, while facing severe sanctions.