Annual report 2024 - CBRN disarmament and Non-proliferation

Authors:

  • Susanne Börjegren
  • Fredrik Nielsen
  • Rikard Norlin
  • Per Wikström
  • Anna Holmström
  • Tina Broman
  • Anna-Lena Johansson
  • Mattias Aldener
  • Per Andersson
  • Petros Souvatzis
  • Mats Forsman
  • Jonas Näslund
  • Jenny Rattfelt Nyholm
  • Karin Höjer Holmgren
  • Anna Maria Wårlind
  • Staffan Lundin

Publish date: 2025-04-02

Report number: FOI-R--5749--SE

Pages: 24

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • disarmament
  • non-proliferation
  • chemical weapon
  • biological weapon
  • nuclear weapon
  • space
  • missile

Abstract

In 2024, global tension has increased further, as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and later the war between Israel and Hamas. Russian threats and false accusations against Ukraine have brought a continued increased focus on CBRN-related issues. Nuclear weapons are taking on a more and more prominent role in the world. From proliferating countries like Iran, to nuclear weapon states like China and North Korea that appear to be expanding their arsenals, to the continued nuclear threat from Russia. The work in 2024 has, as before, been characterized by major contradictions within the C weapons convention. Syria and Russia have, as before, been in the spotlight due to previous, and in Russia's case possible ongoing, violations of the convention. Disinformation campaigns from these two countries are a recurring feature, especially before and during the convention's working meetings. However, the fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024 will likely have positive consequences for the work linked to Syria's previous, and possibly current, possession of chemical weapons. With respect to the biological disarmament and non-proliferation sphere, the new working group of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) has taken important steps towards the goal of strengthening the convention by moving forward in topics having reached a higher degree of maturity. Less positive is the fact that Russia has continued to use the BTWC forum for disinformation purposes and to strongly question US and Ukrainian compliance with the BTWC. In addition, Russia's intensified obstruction of convention meetings has contributed to increased irritation.