The Philippines' strategic outlook: Pendulum swings, maritime tensions and military modernisation efforts

Authors:

  • Olivier Milland

Publish date: 2025-09-15

Report number: FOI-R--5789--SE

Pages: 73

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Philippines
  • security policy
  • strategic outlook
  • defence modernisation
  • foreign policy
  • Indopacific Ocean
  • political dynasties
  • oligarchy
  • terrorism
  • islamist
  • jihadist
  • great power rivalry

Abstract

This report analyses the Philippines' security policy and strategic outlook by studying its political history, internal political landscape and challenges, its perception of self and threats, its relations with great powers like China and the US, as well as Philippine security-related priorities. The Philippines' geographic location in the Indo-Pacifc region, where great-power rivalries and geopolitical friction are growing, in many ways, makes it a pivotal state. Swings in the Philippines' foreign policy, a trend seen for many years, can therefore have wideranging consequences for Western interests in the region. A perception of the Philippines as the weakest link in the US alliance system in the Indo-Pacific, along with the country's great internal political challenges, make it an attractive target for external influence-peddling operations aiming to undermine Western influence. Sweden has stated an ambition to strengthen cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, which includes the Philippines. This report, hence, emphasises the importance of continuing to strengthen knowlegde about the Philippines as a strategic actor and its geopolitical environment in a bid to better understand developments in the Indo-Pacific region and their implications on Swedish interests.