The Future of Warfare in Russian Military Thinking
Publish date: 2026-02-06
Report number: FOI-R--5806--SE
Pages: 34
Written in: English
Keywords:
- transitional war
- Russian military thought
- future war
- transparent battlefield
- ISR
- deterrence
- adaption
Abstract
The Russo-Ukrainian War exhibits the features of a transitional war, reshaping Russian military thought and force development under pressure. The war has exposed structural weaknesses across the services while catalysing debate over the future of warfare. Russian analysts are divided between preserving traditional concepts of mass, manoeuvre, and firepower, and pursuing adaptations suited to a battlespace defined by transparency, precision strikes, and unmanned systems. Within the Ground Forces, failures in 2022 prompted renewed scrutiny of Soviet-era inheritance and the need to operate effectively under constant surveillance. In the aerospace domain, Russian theorists increasingly emphasise the decisive role of integrated air, space, and information capabilities. Experiences in Ukraine have reinforced the demand for precision-guided weapons, space-enabled targeting, and unmanned systems, all supporting a broader pursuit of information dominance. The Navy maintains its doctrinal importance as an instrument of global presence and deterrence, despite economic constraints. Cyber operations continue to be framed within a holistic concept of information confrontation rather than as a distinct domain. Nuclear forces remain the core of Russian deterrence, with modernisation focused on flexibility and survivability. Overall, the war has intensified debate and adaptation, but Russia's strategic objectives, fiscal limits, and confrontation with the West continue to shape this trajectory, and the Russian view of future warfare.