Organized crime and hybrid threats - New threats to the Swedish social model
Publish date: 2025-11-25
Report number: FOI-R--5808--SE
Pages: 48
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- hybrid threats
- organised crime
- the Swedish social model
- principal values
- municipalities
- welfare systems
- political parties
- business sector.
Abstract
The report aims to describe how organized crime challenges the Swedish social model and to discuss potential hybrid threats in the form of links between organized crime and terrorism, as well as in relation to foreign powers. The report poses three questions: What vulnerabilities exist in the Swedish social model? What fundamental values are under threat? How can terrorist groups and foreign powers use actors within organized crime to exploit societal vulnerabilities? The study is limited to municipalities, political parties, welfare systems, and the business sector, with a focus on the local level. The report identifies several fundamental values that are at stake, such as predictable, effective, and law-based administration, municipal finances, the legitimacy of the political system, and the distribution, predictability, and financing of welfare systems. Drawing upon international research, the report discusses hybrid threats and potential links between organized crime and terrorism (the crime-terror-nexus) in the form of alliances, operational cooperation, mergers, or failed states. Foreign powers can take advantage of societal vulnerabilities and potentially use criminal actors for election interference, disinformation, rumour spreading, or cyberattacks. Drawing on secondary sources in the form of research, government reports, and media coverage, the report identifies a new and important area of research with a need for more research in a Swedish context. A focus on the local level is central.