The Past and the Future that Form Today - A System Mapping and Risk Assessment of Swedish Biotech

Authors:

  • Jeanette Blomberg
  • Michal Budryk
  • Nina Forsgren
  • Alexander Gorgijevski
  • Michael Hall
  • Petrus Hemström
  • Moa Lavander
  • Jonas Näslund
  • Per Stenberg
  • Per Wikström

Publish date: 2026-01-23

Report number: FOI-R--5848--SE

Pages: 103

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • biotechnology
  • risk assessment
  • industry analysis
  • system analysis

Abstract

Biotechnology is a critical and rapidly developing technology area of great importance for both society and defence, according to the European Commission and NATO. It includes genetic modification, synthetic biology, vaccine development and other technologies with both civilian and military applications, but also carries risks such as uncontrolled spread of the technology. Our analysis of Swedish biotechnology shows that it can strengthen defence and the civil sectors of the society, for example through bioanalysis, vaccine development and improved healthcare, but that development is mainly driven by commercial interests. The Swedish biotechnology industry is fragmented, with few large players and many small companies, concentrated in regions with strong academic research. The lack of growth capital and limited access to venture capital means that many companies are acquired or moved abroad. The industry also struggles with unclear regulatory requirements, vulnerable supply chains and strong foreign dependence, especially in vaccine production. To strengthen the industry, there is a need for increased access to capital, better coordination, reduced vulnerability in supply chains and the adoption of a more proactive Swedish engagement at the EU level. Sweden also needs to attract qualified personnel and concentrate responsibility for biotechnology issues, which is currently spread among many actors. Several of the patterns identified, from the breakup of Pharmacia to today's capital flows, show how past decisions continue to shape the landscape for current actors.