The evolution of jihadi organisations in Africa since 2020 Cases from the Lake Chad basin, the Sahel region, and Somalia
Publish date: 2026-04-09
Report number: FOI-R--5871--SE
Pages: 61
Written in: English
Keywords:
- jihadi
- Qaeda
- Islamic State
- Lake Chad
- Sahel
- Somalia
- Boko Haram
- Shabaab
- JNIM
- ISWAP
- Burkina Faso
- Mali
- Niger
- Nigeria
- counterterrorism
- security policy
Abstract
This report analyses the evolution of jihadist organisations in the Lake Chad basin, the Sahel region, and Somalia since 2020. The report identifies major trends highlighted in the semestrial reports the UN Security Council's panel of experts between January 2020 and February 2026. As the report shows, these groups now account for the largest share of jihadist attacks and related fatalities worldwide. This is highlighted by an expansion of the jihadist groups' areas of operations, enhanced fighting capacities, improved capabilities, and strengthened governance structures. Even though the Africa-based jihadist organisations discussed largely remain linked to global jihadist brands such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State, they are very much coloured by their surrounding environments, which affects their respective trajectories. Comparing insurgencies across three different regions gives insights into the nature of jihadist insurgencies more generally and the major developments in Africa, in particular. Although local communities and countries in these regions are those most affected by this phenomenon, there are several implications also for Europe, including increased migration, political uncertainty, and government instability affecting international relations.