Even after half a century, the Western Sahara conflict remains relatively unknown - yet it greatly affects the security architecture of North Africa. Since 1975, Morocco disputes the territory with an Algeria-backed independence movement, the Polisario. After a lengthy ceasefire, hostilities resumed in 2020 and, also in that year, the United States unilaterally recognized Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara. This FOI report compiles information about the conflict and its key actors, investigating the new situation that has arisen. While Morocco now clearly holds the upper hand militarily and politically, this may not be sufficient to quickly finalize and legitimize its annexation of Western Sahara. It is estimated that the most likely scenario in a ten-year time frame is a continued deadlock, albeit with growing acceptance of Moroccan control. A final Moroccan victory, through some form of UN-approved autonomy for Western Sahara within Morocco's borders, is considered the next to most likely scenario. Other alternatives remain possible.