During the Cold War Nato was expected to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict, and the Soviet Union signalled an immediate, massive and guaranteed nuclear response. Newly independent Russia began to think about limited nuclear war, and over four decades strategic forces were renewed and a flexible and modern nuclear arsenal tailored for regional war was constructed. Building a nuclear weapon capability at scale is a formidable project that can't be accomplished quickly. The rapid increase in Chinese nuclear capability and the US response will force Russia to think through the kind of force needed for the 2030s and beyond. The uncertain outcome of Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the dramatic change it has brought about in Europe requires a reassessment of regional war. It would be extremely costly for Russia to match the anticipated size of future Chinese and US arsenals. Reciprocal agreements that "freeze" current conditions might be to Russia's advantage, but the barriers to new arms control agreement are formidable. In an increasingly unfavourable conventional military balance. the most likely outcome is more extensive nuclear coercion through rhetoric, public release of official documents and military exercises. Russia's objective will be to sow discord and division among its adversaries through uncertainty about when and how nuclear weapons might be used.