Civilian Technology Trends with Relevance for Cyber Defence - Explorative Analysis of Trends 2026
Publish date: 2026-07-02
Report number: FOI-R--5956--SE
Pages: 78
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- cyber defence
- AI
- cloud
- sovereignty
- post-quantum cryptography
Abstract
The report analyses the technological trends that five influential analysis firms have identified as particularly relevant for 2026. The authors of this report have assessed these trends based on the relevance to the Swedish Armed Forces, and specifically to cyber defence. Nine trends are addressed in the report: - Multi-agent systems - Access to AI models and AI computation - Cloud service challenges - AI-based software development - AI for cyber defence - Digital provenance - Post-quantum cryptography - Security for large language models - Physical AI Each trend is analysed based on research from FOI and other researchers. The analyses result in practical recommendations for the cyber defence. Since most trends involve AI, several of the recommendations share common themes: protection and defence against and with AI, organisational changes, and aspects of digital sovereignty. Among the organisational changes are also recommendations regarding post-quantum cryptography.