Compared to a decade ago, Russia has clearly made substantial progress in transforming
its military into an efficient fighting force. This report addresses the question: What military
capability will Russia possess in another ten years?

Through analyses of Russia’s Armed Forces and their fighting power, and of the political
and economic factors that affect the development of military capability, this report arrives
at a forecast of Russian military capability towards 2029. The study’s primary focus is on
regular warfare capabilities. This is the ninth in a series of FOI reports, dating back to 1999,
on Russian military capability.

At present, there is no sign of a change in Russia’s current authoritarian and anti-Western
security policy. Recognition as a great power and establishing a sphere of interest in its
neighbourhood will remain its main objectives. Change can come quickly in a ten-year
perspective. However, we cannot expect any precise signs in advance.

The impressive pace of improvement of Russia’s Armed Forces in the past decade is
probably not sustainable. Instead, the next ten years will consolidate these achievements,
notably the ability to launch a regional war. Strategic deterrence, primarily with nuclear
forces, will remain the foremost priority.

Over the past ten years, Russia has bridged the gap between its policy ambitions and
its military capability. A significant increase in Russia’s military capability towards 2029
would require that an increase in defence spending, arms procurement, the Armed Forces’
organisation, and exercise activity were given priority and received sustained political
support.

Read the report

Experts involved in the Russia and Eurasia Studies Programme. All these experts speak Russian:

Valentin Deleniv, Junior analyst, M.A.
Valentin follows developments in the Russian defence industry.

Maria Engqvist, , Analyst, M.A., Deputy Project Manager
Maria is a Historian and a Slavist. She follows the development of Russian security and domestic policy, as well as military related questions.

Pär Gustafsson Kurki, Senior analyst, Ph.D.
Pär is researching Russian ideology: Orthodox faith, militarism, and patriotism.

Jonas Kjellén, Military Analyst, M.Sc.
Jonas follows different aspects of the development in the Russian Armed Forces.

Emma-Lina Löflund, Researcher, Ph.D.
Emma-Lina is a Slavist who focuses on the development of Ukrainian security and domestic policy. She also follows Ukrainian defence policy.

Tomas Malmlöf, Senior Analyst, M.Sc.
Tomas follows the State Armament Programmes and the procurement process, the structure of and development within the military-industrial complex, and technological development.

Kristina Melin, Analyst, M.A.
Kristina’s research focuses on Russian foreign and security policy, in particular nuclear weapons policy. She also covers developments in Belarus and Moldova.

Johan Norberg, Deputy Research Director, M.Sc.
Johan follows developments in the Russian Armed Forces.

Carolina Vendil Pallin, Deputy Research Director, PhD, Project Manager
Carolina covers Russian decision-making, domestic politics, as well as Russian military reform, cyber strategy and Russia’s relations with the EU.

Emil Wannheden, Analyst, M.Sc.
Emil studies Russia’s economic development. His research interests include the effects of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy, the effects of the sanctions, and Russia’s military expenditure.