4 February

Collective intelligence offers a glimpse of the future

Better predicting future pandemics, economic trends, and election results is just a few of the applications of the crowd forecasting method. Now, it is set to support Ukraine in a project led by FOI in cooperation with the Ukrainian government.

Four people and a lightbulb over them.

When a large number of individuals independently estimate the likelihood of a particular event occurring, the resulting forecast can be remarkably accurate. Image: Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock.

Crowd forecasting, a form of collective intelligence, originated from research conducted by US intelligence agencies in the 2010s. In short, it involves collective assessments of future events. When a large number of individuals independently estimate the likelihood of a particular event occurring, the resulting forecast can be remarkably accurate. In some cases, crowd forecasting has been shown to be 30% more accurate than predictions made by highly educated analysts with access to classified information.

“Crowd forecasting is a well-established method, even though there is still much to learn about it. In the UK, for example, it has been used in the Cosmic Bazaar project as part of intelligence analysis,” says Ivar Ekman, Glimt’s program director and an analyst at FOI.

How crowd forecasting can support Ukraine

On January 20, FOI, in collaboration with the Ukrainian government, launched the web-based platform Glimt.

“On Glimt, people from around the world can answer questions that Ukrainian authorities want insights on—both regarding events in Ukraine and developments in the wider world. The idea is to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression,” says Jonas Clausen Mork, deputy research director at FOI and co-project lead for Glimt alongside Ivar Ekman.

Evaluation: A key to success

For crowd forecasting to be effective, rigorous evaluation of responses is essential. Questions must have a set deadline, and it must be clear whether an answer is correct or incorrect. For instance, the question “Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in 2025?” has only two possible answers: yes or no.

“This rewards those who take the time to make honest assessments of what is likely to happen rather than those who simply guess or express their personal opinions. Users who make the most accurate predictions are ranked higher than those who are unreliable,” says Ivar Ekman.

Anyone is welcome to register on Glimt and start making forecasts.

“We encourage anonymous participation and have deliberately chosen to collect minimal personal data. No prior experience or specific expertise is required to contribute. In fact, the more people who take part in forecasting, the greater the likelihood that Glimt will provide accurate insights into the future,” says Jonas Clausen Mork.

Glimt is available in Swedish, English, and French.