Test of scenario tool within Climatools, develop socio-economic scenarios for the tourism sector


  • Karin Mossberg Sonnek
  • Lisa Hörnsten Friberg

Publish date: 2009-08-24

Report number: FOI-R--2798--SE

Pages: 59

Written in: Swedish


  • climate adaptation
  • climate change
  • tourism
  • outdoor life
  • Österlen
  • focus groups
  • socio-economic scenarios
  • climate scenarios
  • scenario development


In this report we describe the development of three socio-economic scenarios in a 20 years´perspective for the tourism sector in the southern part of Sweden. Development was conducted using a scenario tool proposed by Carlsen and Dreborg in the research programme Climatools. The aim of scenario development was primarily to support development of the scenario tool by providing an understanding of the kinds of demands sush a tool may meet in practice. Based on our study, we propose how the final manual, addressing end-users, can be complemented. The socio-economic scenarios, together with a climate scenario, were presented to the tourism companies in the Municipality of Simrishamn to facilitate strategic planning with respect to climate change. Tourism is a growing sector in Sweden, giving rise to job opportunities and tax revenues, and it is therefore desirable to develop tools that help the sector adapt to climate change.