Methodology for risk evaluation


  • Staffan Harling
  • Anna-Lena Berg
  • Markus Karlsson
  • Pernilla Magnusson
  • Mats Hartmann

Publish date: 2010-10-01

Report number: FOI-R--3030--SE

Pages: 39

Written in: Swedish


  • risk
  • method
  • assessment
  • fragment
  • collateral damage
  • vulnerability
  • human
  • basic data for decision-making


This report suggests a methodology on risk evaluation for The Swedish Armed Forces for the use of weapons, primarily fragmenting warheads. The risk evaluation comprises the first three steps in the risk management model, i.e. risk identification, risk estimation, and risk assessment. De two remaining steps, measures and follow-up, are not described. The essential parts of the proposed methodology have large similarities with Risk Management in The Swedish Armed Forces. The concepts tolerated and acceptable risk are discussed and compared to risk levels in everyday society. The level of risk that can be accepted varies from case to case and must be decided by the commander in charge. Knowledge of human vulnerability to fragments is essential to assess the risk for civilians or own troops close to a detonation location. A number of human vulnerability criteria are presented. The suggested methodology is exemplified by two examples with different levels of complexity. A tool for calculation of risk distances is also briefly described.