Modular scenario for total defence planning

Authors:

  • Erika Öhlund
  • Beatrice Reichel
  • Johan Lindgren

Publish date: 2021-05-07

Report number: FOI-R--5144--SE

Pages: 35

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • scenario
  • scenario methodology
  • security of supply
  • heightened alert
  • hybrid threats
  • procurement
  • preparedness measures
  • private sector involvement
  • civil defence

Abstract

This collection of scenarios is intended to support Swedish authorities in planning for supply chain disturbances. It focusses specifically on planning for disturbances that could occur if Sweden is at war, threatened by war, or recovering from war. The collection contains descriptions of three fictional scenarios where the supply of essential goods and services is threatened. These scenarios can be developed and made more specific with the aid of 24 different injects. The scenarios can be adapted based on the authorities' different needs and individual cirumstances. The collection's modular nature also facilitates an analysis of intersectoral dependencies. It is beneficial if the scenarios are played with respresentatives from business and industry. The collection also contains examples of preparedness-raising measures that can be included in public procurement processes. Over time, the scenarios can contribute a better understanding of the demands authorities need to place on suppliers in relation to delivery security and availability of goods and services. The scenario collection was developed at the intitiative of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). It is intended to be used separately or alongside MSB's guidelines for planning for supply chain disturbances that will be published during 2021.