Turkey's strategic trajectory - Strategic autonomy and great power dependencies
Publish date: 2025-06-27
Report number: FOI-R--5781--SE
Pages: 65
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Türkiye
- strategic trajectory
- security and defence policy
- strategic autonomy
- dependency
- USA
- Russia
- EU
- China
- Sweden
- NATO
- AKP
- Erdoğan
- PKK
Abstract
This study analyses Türkiye's strategic trajectory, based on domestic political developments as well as foreign policy interests, objectives, and threat perceptions. After describing how Türkiye's threat perception differs from those of its traditional allies, the study explores Turkish strategic autonomy - the strategy Türkiye has adopted to manage these threat perception discrepancies and to protect its interests through foreign policy actions. The study explores strategic autonomy by analysing how Türkiye has acted in four cases: Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, and Somalia. As the study notes, Türkiye's strategic autonomy is limited by dependencies on key external actors. Accordingly, the study examines Türkiye's relationships and its dependencies on the United States, Russia, the EU, and China. Finally, the study reflects on how Türkiye's strategic trajectory affects the prospects of a potential deepening of Swedish-Turkish defence cooperation.