When Do I Get My Money? – An Exploratory Analysis of the Expected Effects of Disruptions to Government Transfers and Public Sector Wages

Authors:

  • Susanna Holzer
  • Gustav Häggbom

Publish date: 2026-06-17

Report number: FOI-R--5929--SE

Pages: 68

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • economic preparedness
  • government payment systems
  • social insurance
  • public sector wages
  • household liquidity constraints
  • household resilience
  • socio-economic impacts
  • cascading effects
  • financial stability
  • total defence
  • institutional trust

Abstract

The report analyses the socio-economic consequences of a scenario in which the state is unable to execute payments to households, either in the form of government benefits or public sector wages. The study adopts a total defence perspective, where the state's payment capacity is regarded as a critical societal function. Using an exploratory and systems-oriented approach, the analysis traces effects from immediate household liquidity shortages to broader impacts across the economy. The results show that government benefits constitute a central source of income for many households and function as an economic stabiliser. Payment disruptions would therefore have rapid effects: liquidity shortages would emerge within days, consumption would decline, and pressure on municipal social assistance systems would increase. Simulations indicate that the number of people living in households with a low-income standard could rise rapidly from just under 500,000 to more than 2.5 million people. Interruptions to public sector wages would initially have more limited householdlevel effects, but prolonged disruptions risk affecting the state's operational capacity and workforce supply. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that the state's ability to execute payments is fundamental to economic stability, societal functioning, and the resilience of Sweden's total defence system.